The Strategic Air War Against Germany and Japan: A Memoir (1986)

Incendiary Attacks

There were 17 maximum-effort attacks “entailing 6,960 B-29 sorties and 41,592 tons of bombs. Losses were 136 B-29s or about 2 percent of the sorties. Thereafter, LeMay turned to the smaller cities on his list, eventually assualting and devastating a total of 66 urban areas.

Missions flown against oil refineries or synthetic plants included those on June 26.27 at Yokkaichi (partly effective); June 29/30 at Kudamatsu (modderately successful); July 2/3 at Shimotsu; July 6/7 at Shimotsu (outcome “superb”); July 9/10 at Yokkaichi; July 12/13 at Kawasaki; July 15/16 ag Kudamatsu; July 19/20 at Kansai; July 22/23 at Ube; July 25/26 at Kawasaki; July 28,29 at Shimotsu; Aug. ˝ at Kawasaki; Aug. 5/6 at Ube; Aug. 9/10 at Kansai, and Aug. 14/15 at Tsuchizaki.

Objectives of the air offensive

The objectives of the air offensive were to:

1. Bring about an overwhelming and immediate drop in war production.

2. Shut off output of certain specific high priority items of war production.

3. Accelerate the rate of the existing decline of overall war production.

4. Force a substantial cut in production of those military supplies of such high priority that they would otherwise withstand the effects of the current restrictive economic forces.

(To me, 1 and 3 are nearly the same thing, and the wording of number 4 makes little sense.)

The article talks about the lowering of war production due to dispersal of the plants, moving them, or at least some of their work, to other areas. It says about 55% of the aircraft industry facilities were out of production due to dispersal alone. This doesn't count facilities destroyed by bombing.

These declines relate to new things being made. This needs to be related to actual losses in the war. In 1945, for example, half of all Army supplies were sunk.

In relation to war production from September 1944 through July 1945, there was quite a drop. Aircraft production decreased by 57%; Army ordinance production by 54%; Naval ordinance production by 56%; merchant ship production by 82% and naval ship production by 53%. In other words, there was no way Japan could replace the losses it was suffering due to the war, especially in merchant shipping.

Alternatives to end the war

1. Siege. Continue mining the area around Japan to nearly totally cut off the flow of food and raw materials into the country. Continue aerial bombing and attacks from the sea, but don't use an actual physical invasion of the country. MacArthur considered this alternative to be too time-consuming.

2. Attack areas to the west of Japan and take them over, then use those as bases to attack Kyushu and Honshu from the air. MacArthur turned this one down as too time-consuming and diversionary away from the decisive area, which was the plain of Tokyo.

3. Invade Kyushu. Build airfields there, then attack Honshu. This was Operation Olympic and Operation Coronet. This was the course MacArthur recommended.

The plan for invading Kyushu called for 766,700 men. Casualties could run to 268,000 if Okinawa was used as a rule of thumb.

Cities targeted for the atomic bomb

These included Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Kokura and Niigata. (Note; this doesn't agree with the listing in a different report, so I can't say for sure which one is exactly correct.)

Twentieth Air Force Losses

Half of the bomber losses were due to enemy fighters. 36% were due to antiaircraft fire, 13% were due to both, and 1% were due to accident. There were 80 fighters lost.

There were still around 3,700 B-29s available at the end of the war.

175 square miles of urban area in 66 Japanese cities were wiped out. Civilian casualties were estimated at 3300,000 dead; 476,000 injured; 9,200,000 homeless. 2,210,000 houses were destroyed and another 90,000 damaged. 159,862 tons of bombs were dropped. Then the report says that total Japanese deaths (military and civilian) from strategic attack from all sources were 900,000 dead, 1,300,000 wounded.

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